High Capacity Transit System
"High-capacity transportation system" means a system of public transportation services within an urbanized region operating principally on exclusive rights of way, and the supporting services and facilities necessary to implement such a system, including interim express services and high occupancy vehicle lanes, which taken as a whole, provides a substantially higher level of passenger capacity, speed, and service frequency than traditional public transportation systems operating principally in general purpose roadways.
ST2 Timeline
It's time to identify the next package of transit and transportation projects for the Central Puget Sound Region. This schedule shows how Sound Transit plans to provide ST2 project, cost and financial scenarios for public review and comment.
Download the timeline (412 kb) >>
ST2 Project Evaluation Criteria
A range of factors must be considered when making a choice among competing transportation technologies. Some are fairly quantitative -- such as cost and ridership -- but other criteria are more subjective, relating to critical policy decisions about the Puget Sound region and how we want to handle growth. Some risk factors cannot be fully calculated, but only acknowledged. And some are subjective, like what do people generally prefer? The Sound Transit Board is using the following criteria as it decides among competing transit technologies:
Ridership
How many riders do the models predict at a given point in the future, e.g., 2030? Are there other factors to consider that transit ridership models do not address?
Capital Costs
How much does it cost to build? As design progresses, cost numbers become more certain and meaningful. At this early stage, cost numbers have value as order of magnitude estimates and for the purpose of comparison between different projects.
Operating Costs
How much does the project cost to operate and maintain?
Travel Time and Reliability
How long does it take to carry people between the urban centers it connects? Is it in exclusive right-of-way? Will the transit be insulated from the risks of congestion in the general traffic right-of-way? Will travel times be reliable and predictable?
Connectivity and Mobility
How well does the transit system connect our urban centers? How well does the transit system connect with major places of employment, educational facilities, medical facilities, shopping hubs, sporting venues, and other places where people go to work, shop, and play? How effectively does it move people — are they forced to transfer and could the transfer be avoided? Does the system affect the mobility of other kinds of travel?
System Integration
How well does the transit system integrate with other components of the regional transit system and build on the services started in Sound Move? Does the project extend Sound Move services in logical ways?
Land Use and Development
How does the transit system support local land use or transit oriented development? Does the transit system support local economic development? Are there other economic benefits, such as freight mobility?
Customer Experience
Is it safe? Comfortable? Convenient? Easy to use?
Risk
What are the risks associated with capital and operating estimates? What are the performance risks associated with each technology or project? Are there policy risks? Is there implementation risk? Are we reliant on the actions of others before we can implement what we want?
Environmental Benefit
What are the environmental or public health benefits of expanding the transit system (e.g., air quality)?
Financial Considerations for ST2
As the region plans for Sound Transit 2, the future expansion of the regional mass transit system, the Sound Transit Board will consider a range of potential revenue levels.
Building a Financial Plan for Potential ST2 Projects
The Sound Transit Board is reviewing cost and benefit information on approximately 80 ST2 projects that initially meet the criteria of the agency's adopted Long-Range Plan and that were identified by regional subarea forums.
The initial project cost estimates are in constant 2005 dollars and do not yet address important variables, such as when each project might actually be built, how they will be integrated into a system plan, and how much ongoing service costs each investment will represent.
In 2006, the Board will be in position to finalize the project list and proposed tax levels so that the projects are matched against the revenue levels necessary to support them.
A number of financial tools are available to support the ST2 projects. The tools include:
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Sales tax collections. Sound Transit currently collects 0.4 percent with 0.5 percent remaining capacity.
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Motor Vehicle Excise Tax. Sound Transit currently collects 0.3 percent. Following passage of statewide Initiative 776, Sound Transit cannot re-impose the tax. The financial plan assumes the continuing collection through 2028 when the MVET-pledged bonds are retired, but no bonding against the tax.
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Employee tax. Sound Transit currently does not collect an employee tax.
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Rental car tax. Currently 0.8 percent.
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Federal funds.
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Miscellaneous, including investment earning and farebox recovery.
Estimating ST2 Financial Capacity—Financial Planning
In developing financial capacity estimates for ST2, the agency will use reasonable financial planning assumptions. The agency's long-term financial plans are consistent with guidelines provided by the Federal Transit Administration, and they have been reviewed by independent experts. Local tax revenues are based on an independent estimate by Conway and Associates, a leading forecasting firm in the Puget Sound region. Inflation forecasts are also based on independent estimates for Conway and Associates, prepared by Global Insights and Forecasting and Business Analytics.
The following table is a partial estimate of the ST2 initial financial capacity estimate. This estimate is a starting point and is no way comprehensive. The table displays estimated excess capacity from Sound Move and revenue from potential additional taxes through 2020 and 2025. The table does not include bonding, federal grants or farebox revenues.
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Potential Future Financial Scenarios: ST2 Excess Cash Balances from Phase 1 + Tax Collections from Additional Sales Taxes1 No Bonding, fares or ST2 Federal Grants Included |
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Millions 2005$ |
Current |
Potential Sales Tax Rate Increase Scenarios2 |
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|
|
Tax Rate |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
|
|
2020 Planning Horizon |
|
|||||||
|
Snohomish |
157 |
266 |
374 |
483 |
591 |
700 |
|
|
|
North King |
35 |
279 |
524 |
768 |
1,012 |
1,257 |
|
|
|
South King |
64 |
243 |
421 |
600 |
778 |
957 |
|
|
|
East King |
628 |
868 |
1,108 |
1,349 |
1,589 |
1,829 |
|
|
|
Pierce |
229 |
386 |
543 |
700 |
857 |
1,014 |
|
|
|
Total |
1,113 |
2,042 |
2,970 |
3,899 |
4,828 |
5,757 |
|
|
|
2025 Planning Horizon |
||||||
|
Snohomish |
246 |
399 |
553 |
706 |
860 |
1,013 |
|
North King |
155 |
497 |
840 |
1,182 |
1,524 |
1,867 |
|
South King |
128 |
381 |
633 |
886 |
1,139 |
1,391 |
|
East King |
862 |
1,201 |
1,540 |
1,879 |
2,218 |
2,556 |
|
Pierce |
355 |
576 |
797 |
1,019 |
1,240 |
1,461 |
|
Total |
1,746 |
3,055 |
4,363 |
5,672 |
6,980 |
8,289 |
|
Notes on figures: |
The total ST2 initial financial capacity estimate will be better defined over the next weeks and months as the Board reviews, prioritizes and narrows the list of potential projects for ST2. At that time, the financial pieces, including bonding requirements, operating costs and service, farebox revenue and potential federal grant dollars, will be more clearly defined.
Administrative Changes to Sound Transit's Financial Structure
Planning for ST2 greatly benefits from the experience Sound Transit learned through a decade of project planning, construction, and operation. As a mature public agency, Sound Transit has the opportunity to apply the same type of "lessons learned" to its accounting and financial management practices. As part of its consideration of ST2, the Board will review and potentially update its financial policies.
